Use of seasonal climate forecasts to minimize short-term operational risks for water supply and ecosystem restoration

US Department of Commerce

Award Dates
10/01/2012 – 09/30/2014


Project Lead
Graham, Wendy Dimbero

Project Participants
Alison Adams, Tampa Bay Water
Ronnie Best, USGS
Jessica Bolson, SECC, UF
Ben Kirtman, U Miami
Martinez, Christopher J, UF
Vasu Misra, FSU
Kevin Morris, MRWSA
Louis Murray, USGS
Jayantha Obeysekera, SFWMD
Lisette Staal, UF Water Institute

Goals and Objectives

The overall goal of this project is to improve the regional relevance of seasonal climate forecasts and increase their usability for multiple water managers in Florida to minimize short-term operational risks for water supply as well as ecosystem restoration. This project is integrated with the Public Water Supply Utilities—Climate Impacts Working Group.

The specific objectives of this project are to:

• Evaluate of the skill of the large-scale NMME seasonal climate predictions (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity, wind speed) on a daily basis over all seasons and over a common grid across the Southeast US. We will use the NMME set of seasonal hindcasts ( ), which are from seven different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

• Statistical downscaling of the NMME forecasts to the watershed scale and evaluate the skill of these seasonal predictions over three specific domains: Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority, Tampa Bay Water and the South Florida Water Management District.

• Execution of a comparative study across three organizations of the benefits and limitations of using seasonal climate forecasts for their operational needs using the following techniques: Interviews, Qualitative focus groups, Cross organizational comparisons and analysis

Available Outputs

Title: Seasonal predictions of regional reference evapotranspiration (ETo) based on Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2014.
Authors: Tian, D., C.Martinez, and W. Graham

Title: Forecasts of seasonal streamflow in West-Central Florida using multiple climate predictors. Journal of Hydrology 519, 1130-1140. 2014.
Authors: Risko, S.L. and C.J. Martinez

Title: NOAA SARP Project (NA12OAR4310130) Final Report
Authors: Staal, Lisette

Title: Statistical downscaling multi-model forecasts for seasonal precipitation and surface temperature over southeastern USA. Journal of Climate, 2014 (DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00481.1)
Authors: Tian, D., C. Martinez, W. Graham, and S. Hwang