Evaluating the use of Global reanalysis data, GCM retrospective predictions and GCM future projections for Public Water Supply Planning

Sponsor: Tampa Bay Water

Award Dates: 2010- 2020


Project Lead: Graham, Wendy D.

Project Participants: Syewoon Hwang; Seungwoo Chang (Jason)

Goals and Objectives

The aim of this project is to characterize the value, uncertainties and risks associated with the use of multi-decadal climate forecasts and predictions for water resource planning in South West Florida. South West Florida, which includes the heavily populated Tampa Bay area, arguably has the most intense competition for water resources among urban, agricultural and ecological users, as well as significant vulnerability to floods, droughts, and and long-term climate change. The major water resource decision makers in this area are Tampa Bay Water, the largest public water supplier in the region, and the South West Florida Water Management District, which has the responsibility of issuing permits to local and regional governments, agriculture, and other users of surface and aquifer water sources. In this research we will develop and implement a prototype modeling system that provides multi-decadal climate forecasts and predictions for use in Tampa Bay Water’s water resource decision making processes. A variety of dynamical and statistical Global Climate Model (GCM) downscaling techniques will be developed and evaluated for the Tampa Bay Region. The most successful techniques will be used to drive Tampa Bay Water’s Integrated Hydrologic Model to determine potential impacts of multi-decadal climate varaibility and climate change on water supply reliability in the region.

Available Outputs

Title: Quantitative Spatiotemporal evaluation of dynamically downscaled MM5 precipitation predictions over the Tampa Bay region, Florida, J. Hydrometeor, 12, 1447–1464. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1309.1, 2011.
Authors: Hwang, S., W. Graham, J. Hernandez, C. Martinez, J. Jones and A. Adams

Title: Assessment of the utility of dynamically-downscaled regional reanalysis data to predict streamflow in west central Florida using an integrated hydrologic model, Regional Environmental Change, doi: 10.1007/s10113-013-0406-x, 2013.
Authors: Hwang, S., W. Graham, A. Adams, and J. Guerink

Title: Development and comparative evaluation of a stochastic analog method to downscale daily GCM precipitation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4481-4502, doi:10.5194/hess-17-4481-2013, 2013.
Authors: Hwang, S., and W. Graham

Title: Hydrologic implications of errors in bias-corrected regional reanalysis data for west-central Florida, Journal of Hydrology, 510:513–529, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.042, 2014.
Authors: Hwang, S., W. Graham, J. Guerink, and A. Adams

Title: Assessment of alternative methods for statistically downscaling daily GCM precipitation outputs to simulate regional streamflow, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, doi:10.1111/jawr.12154, 50(4), 1010-1032, 2014.
Authors: Hwang, S., and W. Graham

Title: Sensitivity of future continental United States water deficit projections to general circulation models, the evapotranspiration estimation method, and the greenhouse gas emission scenario. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3261, 2016.
Authors: Chang S., W. Graham, S. Hwang, and R. Munoz-Carpena

Title: Implications of Climate Change on Florida’s Water Resources: Florida’s Climate: Changes, Variations, & Impacts
Authors: J Obeysekera, W Graham, MC Sukop, T Asefa, D Wang,  and K Ghebremichael

Title: Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22, 4793-4813, 2018.
Authors: Chang, S. J., W. Graham, J. Geurink, N. Wanakule, and T. Asefa

Title:  Instructions and data to produce Bias-Corrected Stochastic Analog (BCSA) downscaled climate variables for watersheds in the Southeast U.S., 2018
Authors: Chang, S. J., W. Graham, S. Hwang

Title: The Florida Water and Climate Alliance (FloridaWCA): Developing a stakeholder-scientist partnership to create actionable science in climate adaptation and water resource management, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 1–38, 2020.
Authors: Misra, V., T. Irani, L. Staal, K. Morris, T. Asefa, C. Martinez and W. Graham