Sponsor: Tampa Bay Water
Award Dates: 2010- 2020
Project Lead: Graham, Wendy D.
Project Participants: Syewoon Hwang; Seungwoo Chang (Jason)
Goals and Objectives
The aim of this project is to characterize the value, uncertainties and risks associated with the use of multi-decadal climate forecasts and predictions for water resource planning in South West Florida. South West Florida, which includes the heavily populated Tampa Bay area, arguably has the most intense competition for water resources among urban, agricultural and ecological users, as well as significant vulnerability to floods, droughts, and and long-term climate change. The major water resource decision makers in this area are Tampa Bay Water, the largest public water supplier in the region, and the South West Florida Water Management District, which has the responsibility of issuing permits to local and regional governments, agriculture, and other users of surface and aquifer water sources. In this research we will develop and implement a prototype modeling system that provides multi-decadal climate forecasts and predictions for use in Tampa Bay Water’s water resource decision making processes. A variety of dynamical and statistical Global Climate Model (GCM) downscaling techniques will be developed and evaluated for the Tampa Bay Region. The most successful techniques will be used to drive Tampa Bay Water’s Integrated Hydrologic Model to determine potential impacts of multi-decadal climate varaibility and climate change on water supply reliability in the region.
Title: Quantitative Spatiotemporal evaluation of dynamically downscaled MM5 precipitation predictions over the Tampa Bay region, Florida, J. Hydrometeor, 12, 1447–1464. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1309.1, 2011.
Authors: Hwang, S., W. Graham, J. Hernandez, C. Martinez, J. Jones and A. Adams
Title: Assessment of the utility of dynamically-downscaled regional reanalysis data to predict streamflow in west central Florida using an integrated hydrologic model, Regional Environmental Change, doi: 10.1007/s10113-013-0406-x, 2013.
Authors: Hwang, S., W. Graham, A. Adams, and J. Guerink
Title: Development and comparative evaluation of a stochastic analog method to downscale daily GCM precipitation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4481-4502, doi:10.5194/hess-17-4481-2013, 2013.
Authors: Hwang, S., and W. Graham
Title: Hydrologic implications of errors in bias-corrected regional reanalysis data for west-central Florida, Journal of Hydrology, 510:513–529, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.042, 2014.
Authors: Hwang, S., W. Graham, J. Guerink, and A. Adams
Title: Assessment of alternative methods for statistically downscaling daily GCM precipitation outputs to simulate regional streamflow, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, doi:10.1111/jawr.12154, 50(4), 1010-1032, 2014.
Authors: Hwang, S., and W. Graham
Title: Sensitivity of future continental United States water deficit projections to general circulation models, the evapotranspiration estimation method, and the greenhouse gas emission scenario. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3261, 2016.
Authors: Chang S., W. Graham, S. Hwang, and R. Munoz-Carpena
Title: Implications of Climate Change on Florida’s Water Resources: Florida’s Climate: Changes, Variations, & Impacts
Authors: J Obeysekera, W Graham, MC Sukop, T Asefa, D Wang, and K Ghebremichael
Title: Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22, 4793-4813, 2018.
Authors: Chang, S. J., W. Graham, J. Geurink, N. Wanakule, and T. Asefa
Title: Instructions and data to produce Bias-Corrected Stochastic Analog (BCSA) downscaled climate variables for watersheds in the Southeast U.S., 2018
Authors: Chang, S. J., W. Graham, S. Hwang
Title: The Florida Water and Climate Alliance (FloridaWCA): Developing a stakeholder-scientist partnership to create actionable science in climate adaptation and water resource management, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 1–38, 2020.
Authors: Misra, V., T. Irani, L. Staal, K. Morris, T. Asefa, C. Martinez and W. Graham