Use of Intra-seasonal and Seasonal Forecasts to Reduce Risk in Regional Public Water Supply Management

Sponsor U.S. Department of Commerce-NOAA Award Dates 07/01/2008 – 06/30/2011

Participants


Project Lead Martinez, Christopher J Additional Participants Wendy Graham James W. (Jim) Jones Gregory Kiker

Goals and Objectives


The aim of this project is to characterize the value, uncertainties and risks associated with the use of probabilistic precipitation forecasts for water management decisions in Southwest Florida, which includes the heavily populated area served by Tampa Bay Water. Two objectives will guide our research: 1) Develop and implement a prototype that uses weekly probabilistic forecasts with a 1-month forecast horizon in Tampa Bay Water’s processes of forecasting demand and making source water allocation decisions, and 2) Quantify the uncertainty, reliability, and risk associated with using probabilistic forecasts in Tampa Bay Water’s decision making. The first objective will focus on a 1-week to 1-month operational time-scale. The second objective will focus on both a) the operational time-scale, and b) a 1 to 24 month planning time-scale (and will complement the 1 to 24 month probabilistic precipitation forecasts that we a currently developing for Tampa Bay Water under another project). We will use analog techniques and Model Output Statistics (MOS) to incorporate short- and medium-range probabilistic climate forecasts into the decision models used by Tampa Bay Water and estimate risks and costs relative to using mean climate inputs to their process. Results of this research will be communicated to decision-makers and stakeholders using mechanisms that they routinely use, and we will summarize results on AgClimate.org, the web-based climate information and decision support system developed by the Southeast Climate Consortium.

Available Outputs


Title: Comparison of two analog-based downscaling methods for regional reference evapotranspiration forecasts. Journal of Hydrology, 475: 350-364. 2012. Authors: Tian, D. and C.J. Martinez Title: Forecasting reference evapotranspiration using retrospective forecast analogs in the southeastern United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 13(6): 1874-1892. 2012. Authors: Tian, D. and C.J. Martinez