3rd UF Water Institute Symposium Abstract

Submitter's Name Robert Rooney
Session Name Posters - Water and Climate
Category Climate and Water
Poster Number 70
Author(s) Robert Rooney,  University of Florida (Presenting Author)
  Christopher J. Martinez,  University of Florida
  Implementation of Analog Forecast Technique In Tampa Bay Waters Operational Hydraulic Models
  Reforecasts are retrospective weather forecasts generated with a fixed numerical model. Large reforecast datasets allow for the correction of systematic model error, thus improving upon the raw forecast. In this study, 1-14 day lead-time precipitation forecasts were evaluated in the Tampa Bay region using a two-step analog technique and the 30-year reforecast dataset developed by the Climate Diagnostic Center (CDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) using the Global Forecasting System (GFS) Model. The two-step analog technique consisted of finding historical forecast analogs within a +/-45 day search window followed by retrieving an ensemble of observed precipitation on the analog dates. Different lead days, number of analogs, precipitation thresholds and predictors were evaluated with respect to different months in the year using multiple verification methods. The results of this forecast technique were then incorporated into Tampa Bay Waters Stream Flow and Demand Model in order to enhance reliability in the operational (1day to 2 week) water allocation decision making process.