Thrust Areas Ecosystem Water Institute Classification Level
Water, Land Use and Ecosystems Water and Climate Water and Society Water Resources Sustainability Springs Wetlands Watersheds Aquifers Lakes Coastal Zone  Water Institute Classification 1  Water Institute Classification 2  Water Institute Classification 3  Water Institute Classification 4

Evaluating the use of Global reanalysis data, GCM retrospective predictions and GCM future projections for Public Water Supply Planning
Goals and Objectives
The aim of this project is to characterize the value, uncertainties and risks in South West Florida associated with the use of multi-decadal climate forecasts and predictions for water resource planning. South West Florida, which includes the heavily populated Tampa Bay area, arguably has the most intense competition for water resources among urban, agricultural and ecological users, as well as significant vulnerability to floods, droughts, and and long-term climate change. The major water resource decision makers in this area are Tampa Bay Water, the largest public water supplier in the region, and the South West Florida Water Management District, which has the responsibility of issuing permits to local and regional governments, agriculture, and other users of surface and aquifer water sources. In this research we will develop and implement a prototype modeling system that provides multi-decadal climate forecasts and predictions for use in Tampa Bay Water's water resource decision making processes. A variety of dynamical and statistical Global Climate Model (GCM) downscaling techniques will be developed and evaluated for the Tampa Bay Region. The most successful techniques will be used to drive Tampa Bay Water's Integrated Hydrologic Model to determine potential impacts of multi-decadal climate varaibility and climate change on water supply reliability in the region.
Planned Outputs
Final Report to Agency
Peer Review Articles
Theses and Dissertations
Available Outputs

Title: Hydrologic implications of errors in bias-corrected regional reanalysis data for west-central Florida, Journal of Hydrology, 510:513–529,, 2014.
Authors: Hwang, S., W. Graham, J. Guerink, and A. Adams,

Title: Quantitative Spatiotemporal evaluation of dynamically downscaled MM5 precipitation predictions over the Tampa Bay region, Florida, J. Hydrometeor, 12, 1447–1464. doi:
Authors: Hwang, S., W. Graham, J. Hernández, C. Martinez, J. Jones, and A. Adams

Title: Sensitivity of future continental United States water deficit projections to general circulation models, the evapotranspiration estimation method, and the greenhouse gas emission scenario. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3261, 2016.
Authors: Chang, S., W. Graham, S Hwang and R Munoz-Carpena
Project Lead
Graham, Wendy Dimbero
Project Participants
Graham, Wendy Dimbero
Martinez, Christopher J
Level 3: WI Directed Project
Water and Climate
Partner Name(s)
Grant Award Dates
4/16/2007 to 12/31/2017