Thrust Areas Ecosystem Water Institute Classification Level
Water, Land Use and Ecosystems Water and Climate Water and Society Water Resources Sustainability Springs Wetlands Watersheds Aquifers Lakes Coastal Zone  Water Institute Classification 1  Water Institute Classification 2  Water Institute Classification 3  Water Institute Classification 4

Use of seasonal climate forecasts to minimize short-term operational risks for water supply and ecosystem restoration
Goals and Objectives
The overall goal of this project is to improve the regional relevance of seasonal climate forecasts and increase their usability for multiple water managers in Florida to minimize short-term operational risks for water supply as well as ecosystem restoration. This project is integrated with the Public Water Supply Utilities—Climate Impacts Working Group see research project and related working group web-page.

The specific objectives of this project are to:

• Evaluate of the skill of the large-scale NMME seasonal climate predictions (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity, wind speed) on a daily basis over all seasons and over a common grid across the Southeast US. We will use the NMME set of seasonal hindcasts ( ), which are from seven different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

• Statistical downscaling of the NMME forecasts to the watershed scale and evaluate the skill of these seasonal predictions over three specific domains: Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority, Tampa Bay Water and the South Florida Water Management District.

• Execution of a comparative study across three organizations of the benefits and limitations of using seasonal climate forecasts for their operational needs using the following techniques: Interviews, Qualitative focus groups, Cross organizational comparisons and analysis
Available Outputs

Title: Seasonal predictions of regional reference evapotranspiration (ETo) based on Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2014.
Authors: Tian, D., C.Martinez, and W. Graham

Title: Forecasts of seasonal streamflow in West-Central Florida using multiple climate predictors. Journal of Hydrology 519, 1130-1140. 2014.
Authors: Risko, S.L. and C.J. Martinez

Title: NOAA SARP Project (NA12OAR4310130) Final Report
Authors: Staal, Lisette

Title: Statistical downscaling multi-model forecasts for seasonal precipitation and surface temperature over southeastern USA. Journal of Climate, 2014 (DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00481.1)
Authors: Tian, D., C. Martinez, W. Graham, and S. Hwang
Project Lead
Graham, Wendy Dimbero
Project Participants
Graham, Wendy Dimbero
Martinez, Christopher J
Additional Participants
Alison Adams, Tampa Bay Water
Ronnie Best, USGS
Jessica Bolson, SECC, UF
Ben Kirtman, U Miami
Vasu Misra, FSU
Kevin Morris, MRWSA
Louis Murray, USGS
Jayantha Obeysekera, SFWMD
Lisette Staal, UF Water Institute
Level 3: WI Directed Project
Water and Climate
Grant Award Dates
10/1/2012 to 9/30/2014